Post thumbnail of “What’s the deal with the portfolio?
24 September 2009
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“What’s the deal with the portfolio?

The portfolio is intended to act as an acid test of my option picks. Lots of pundits throw out stock picks, but very few are willing to track them and find out if they are value added at the end of the day. This sample portfolio is NOT to be …

Post thumbnail of “All the Fed’s horses and all the Fed’s men….”
23 September 2009
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“All the Fed’s horses and all the Fed’s men….”

The love letter that the Fed wrote to wall street at the open market meeting got a quick rise out of the bulls, but they could not hold the gains into the close, and we ended up with an 70+ point down day. Not huge by any stretch, but this …

Post thumbnail of Gone fishin’
21 September 2009
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Gone fishin’

In the current market I am finding exciting buys to be a bit thin on the ground, and consequently I am doing a lot of watching and waiting. One thing you can always do in any market however, is go fishing for long term spreads at compelling prices. If you …

Post thumbnail of Amazon: A great example of how not to short
18 September 2009
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Amazon: A great example of how not to short

Watching the seven point surge in AMZN on Wednesday after the stock was upgraded, my first thought was that there must be quite a few shorts getting squeezed. Sure enough, over 6% of the float is borrowed, a huge amount for a large cap stock. My second was that this …

Post thumbnail of Cheap Insurance
11 September 2009
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Cheap Insurance

With the markets going up every day on very light volume — and much of even that volume coming in the form of crackhead day trading in just a few toxic names ( FRE, FNM, C) I think that it’s prudent to be picking up a little near term insurance. …

Post thumbnail of Up is the new black
10 September 2009
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Up is the new black

Another day, another 80 points. The market tried to go down at the open, but “they” were having none of it. Was it Goldman Sachs and the boys at it again, reeling in the suckers with another light volume rally like lambs to the slaughter? Who knows? Who cares? It’s easy …

Post thumbnail of Fly the friendly skies, with your feet close to the ground.
10 September 2009
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Fly the friendly skies, with your feet close to the ground.

For today’s pick we are going to be flying with Boeing. After having a terrible 2008, Boeing has stabilized and started showing signs of life. The company is having trouble with it’s latest aircraft ( the dreamliner), but once that has launched everyone will forget this hiccup and wonder why …

Post thumbnail of Another day, another stick save.
10 September 2009
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Another day, another stick save.

Yet again the market opens up, fades, then spikes up at the close for a nice little gain on low volume. To anyone not paying attention, the take away is another up day, Yeah! As you may have guessed from my previous posts, I don’t trust this rally. But, thinking …

Post thumbnail of Just another rally, nothing to see. Move along.
8 September 2009
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Just another rally, nothing to see. Move along.

Once again the Market gaps up at the open, fades in the morning / afternoon, then a small last hour rally to get us back near the highs. Not a lot of conviction on the part of the buyers, but not much selling pressure either. One thing to note is …

Post thumbnail of Betting after the race has been run
8 September 2009
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Betting after the race has been run

Welcome back for the official start of the end of the trading year. Today we are going to add a deep in the money call spread that expires just after the end of the year. This is a medium payoff bet with a high probability of success. Here we go:
HGSI
Buy …

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