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Post thumbnail of End of the year Lotto ticket
21 December 2009
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End of the year Lotto ticket

Sorry I have been away for a couple of weeks. My wife and I just had our first child, and we are getting settled in for a spell of blissful indentured servitude. Everyone is home, happy and healthy — if a bit sleep deprived — so it’s back to work …

Post thumbnail of November options expiration
20 November 2009
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November options expiration

Things are pretty slow after a weak open on this expiration Friday. One trade that can work well here is to buy at the money straddles starting at around 11:00 AM, and hold them until 2 PM, or until they hit your profit target (don’t get too greedy on a …

Post thumbnail of What to do with a low volume rally
9 November 2009
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What to do with a low volume rally

Today was another glorious 200 point rally for the Dow. Happy days are here again? Given the very low volume  I’m  not convinced, but I have no interest in fighting the market either. Instead I used today to try and pare down my positions. Anything that gave me heartburn two …

Post thumbnail of Why Buffett really bought Burlington
6 November 2009
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Why Buffett really bought Burlington

With Warren Buffett plunking down 44 billion to buy Burlington Northern, many folks are examining the tea leaves and looking for the hidden meaning of the Oracle’s latest move. Economic cheerleaders (mostly in the MSM) were quick to call this a big vote of confidence in the economic recovery. They …

Post thumbnail of Dealing with a manic depressive market
30 October 2009
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Dealing with a manic depressive market

Today’s 249 point decline in the Dow, coming on the heels of yesterday’s 200 point rally, should leave many folks scratching their heads. What’s a trader to do? The short answer is: Pack up your marbles and go home. This is not a rational market, and the cross currents make …

Post thumbnail of A safe (ish) way to short a highflying stock
26 October 2009
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A safe (ish) way to short a highflying stock

A few weeks ago, with Amazon trading below $90, I wrote an article about why I thought Amazon was a terrible short candidate  (see here http://seekingalpha.com/article/162186-why-shorting-amazon-is-a-bad-idea). Over valuation can look like a compelling reason to bet against a stock — after all, sanity has to return sometime, right? But as Keynes …

Post thumbnail of Taking a bite out of Apple
19 October 2009
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Taking a bite out of Apple

After the close today, Apple reported earnings, and they were very, very good. It beat on the top line in every segment and saw nice unit growth as well. Even more importantly, their gross margins increased at the same time. All in all this is an amazing performance from a …

Post thumbnail of Expiration Friday (thank you Google!)
16 October 2009
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Expiration Friday (thank you Google!)

I always enjoy expiration friday. It’s a bit like Christmas, where you wake up early and rush to your computer to see what Mr. Market has left under the tree. Will it be a crisp new pile of fresh greenbacks? (thanks, uncle Ben!) Or a lump of coal? Unlike Santa, …

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15 October 2009
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Google earnings play

With earnings this close to options expiration, I am going to put up an earnings play for the nimble. This is NOT a play that I would put in the conservative 100K portfolio, as it is more of an outright gamble as well as being a one day overnight position. …

Post thumbnail of Woo Hoo! Dow 10,000!
14 October 2009
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Woo Hoo! Dow 10,000!

So today we finally broke the psychologically important 10,000 mark on the Dow. Will it stick? Who knows. I have a feeling that there may be a little buyer’s remorse over the next couple of weeks as the market digests this latest push higher. Rally over? Not so fast. This …

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